The Newtening Continues

I suppose I have left this alone for a while…have been worked to death, and have left my job in New York, doing management consulting, for a position in San Francisco in the tech industry.  Still preparing for the large move in career, location, and state of mind.

In the meantime, Newt Gingrich has risen and fell, the Santorum tide has swept in and out, and it seems that Newt is back.  I do think Newt has some pretty strong structural advantages that make him a much more plausible contender for the “consensus conservative candidate” than, say, Herman Cain.  Namely he’s got massive name recognition thanks to his Speaker role and his years of appearing on Fox News, and is associated with warm and fuzzy memories of 1994 with the older, white conservatives that make up the lion’s share of Republican primary voters.

Obviously Mitt’s fundamentals are pretty strong and Newt is having a strong period right now, suggesting all the Newtsunami talk is overblown.  I’d buy Romney on Intrade, currently trading around 65.  However…it’s probably a mistake, and has been all along, to suggest that Romney is inevitable.  Even a Romney win wouldn’t prove that correct.


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