Another Reason Not to Bomb Iran
I see from the New York Times today that Iran, immediately after hearing about American forces burning Korans in Afghanistan, ordered its forces and agents in Afghanistan to attempt to use that to rally anti-American violence. One thing that I find really oddly absent from the media discussion of bombing Iran is the role that Afghanistan could and likely would play in any post-bombing conflict.
There are many aspects of the war in Afghanistan which are not particularly reassuring or comforting, but one bright spot is the fact that the US is not fighting a proxy war against Iran in Afghanistan. However, it’s certainly not outside the realm of possibility. Personally, if I were Supreme Leader, I would absolutely be making it a priority to stymie the American war effort there. I’d also make sure the Americans knew it, and wouldn’t bother covering my tracks in the slightest. The Americans talking to the NYT stress Iran’s lack of professionalism and competence – while this may be true, it might be what Iranian intelligence wants us to see
Working to incite riots is small-time – in comparison, you may remember that not so long ago Iran was supplying truckloads of explosive lenses to Iraqi insurgents for use against US tanks in Baghdad. There’s no particular reason the Iranians couldn’t do the same in Afghanistan –the devoutly Sunni Taliban might not be wild about Iranian Shiite theocrats, but the Taliban wouldn’t turn up their noses at free weaponry. For that matter, in the vent of a real proxy war there would be nothing stopping Iran from deploying Revolutionary Guard trainers, commandos, or even their actual military in civilian clothes.
Finally, it doesn’t seem outlandish that in the chaos following an American attack on Iran, the Pentagon’s logistics channels via Pakistan and Russia are closed, and the flow of gas, food, and bullets to American forces there dries up overnight. The thought of a hundred thousand American soldiers marooned in Central Asia with no way to resupply or leave should terrify all of us.